EMERGENT LIFE SCIENCES RESEARCH - Vol 8, Issue 1, Published on 30, June 2022

Pages: 141-145
Print Article   Download XML  Download PDF

Trend analysis of cane crushed and sugar production in Bihar

Author: Sudhir Paswan*†, Anupriya Paul, Ajit Paul and Ashish S. Noel

Category: Research Article

Abstract:

The goal of this study was to look at the trends in Bihar's cane crushing and sugar production. From 1939 to 2016, time-series data on cane crushed and sugar production was used (78 years). For this reason, three trend analysis models were used: linear, exponential, and quadratic, with the quadratic trend model being the best fit for the current study's trend analysis. A model was considered better if it processed low values of MAPE, MAD, and MSD and high values of R²₇ and R²₈. It was suggested that forecasted values have a positive increasing trend and are very close to that of actual values in Bihar as the next coming ten years are showing a good picture of sugar production. The result revealed that using the established model, it is possible to see that anticipated cane crushed and sugar production has constantly increased trends for the next ten years, from 2017 to 2026. The percentage increase in cane crushed ranged from 1.41 to 1.44 during 2017-26. The percentage increase in sugar production ranged between1.42 to1.68 during 2017-26. Farmers are becoming more interested in producing sugarcane in their fields as a result of the excellent profits it provides. These estimates will aid in the formulation of sound policies in Bihar's sugar and cane crushing industries.

Keywords: cane crushed, R2, statistical model, sugar production, trend analysis

DOI URL: https://doi.org/10.31783/elsr.2022.81141145